Global Pressure Points in Migration for 2014

2014 looks to be a difficult year in immigration around the world.  There seems to be little forward movement on any of the major challenging issues and significant back sliding in other areas.  The following is brief roundup of some of the hurdles facing different areas of the globe with respect to human migration.

Middle East - Syria

The most challenging and heartrending humanitarian crisis continues to grind on in Syria.  The conflict appears set to extend well beyond 2014.  While diplomats are currently convened in an idyllic Swiss town, the killing continues and neither side seems to be winning or exhausted.  Peace under these conditions has little chance.  Meanwhile, over 6.5 million people are internally displaced, constituting almost 30% of the total population.  The international aspect of this refugee crisis has been deeply impacting neighboring countries and is now demanding the attention of countries further afield.  The UNHCR has register nearly 2.4 million Syrian refugees, with nearly 900,000 currently in neighboring Lebanon, a country with a total population of around 5 million.  (This would be the proportional equivalent of 100 million refugees arriving in the US).  The Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikat, recently wrote an open letter insisting that financial aid, while vital, is not enough, and calling for the international community to secure safe zones within Syria itself.  The international community, viz the US and NATO, have little appetite for this type of massive military intervention and without the support of China and Russia nothing like the intervention seen in Yugoslavia seems remotely feasible. 

Europe and the US are also failing to help those refugees who manage to escape the region.  According to the Washington Post, the United States has granted asylum to only 90 Syrians and of the 60,000 refugees admitted to the US in 2012 only 31 were Syrian.  There has been little political pressure for the US to do more, especially given the weak posture of the US with regard to intervention.  Additionally, refugees from Syria often do not fit into ridged and exclusionary categories for legal asylum in the US and underlying fears that such people may be a security threat. 

The EU has pledged to accept a mere 12,000 or so refugees, garnering the contempt of Amnesty International.  Germany has pledged to accept 10,000, however France has pledged only 500, Spain just 30 and Italy and the UK have pledged to accept none.  Since 2012, some 50,000 Syrian refugees have made their way to Europe with Sweden accepting approximately 14,000 at last count.  Through a chance of geography many Syrians enter the EU via Greece which has such a dismal record of refugee treatment that the Dublin II protocol has an exception for Greece.  Normally refugees must seek asylum in the first country they arrive at in the EU and will be returned there if apprehended in another country. But Greece’s grave violation of human rights protections have lead countries such as Sweden and Germany to abridge the rule, thus allowing some Syrian refugees to seek asylum in their respective countries, despite having arrived via Greece.   The Secretary General of Amnesty International, Salil Shetty, recently said, “the platitudes of Europe’s leaders ring hollow in the face of the evidence. The EU must open its borders, provide safe passage, and halt these deplorable human rights violations.” Thus the Syrian refugee crisis is set to expand and worsen.

Europe

In Europe, the great experiment of free movement embodied in the Schengen agreement stumbles forward with the lifting of work restrictions on citizens of Bulgarians and Romanians on January 1, 2014.  Both countries became parties to the agreement in 2007, but Western European members exercised their right to extend work restrictions for seven years.  Those seven years are now up.  In the meantime, travel restrictions remain in place and Bulgarians and Romanians will still require travel documents to move around the Schengen zone.  Romania announced its intentions to fully partake in the free-movement scheme by the end of the year, while Bulgaria has resigned itself to enjoying free-movement in 2018.

Notwithstanding Europe’s hard line with respect to refugees, there are signs of loosening at least with respect to tourist travel.  In April, the European Council will vote to approve visa-free travel for Peruvians.  A similar agreement looks likely for citizens of Colombia.  It appears that fears of visa overstays have been outweighed by the economic imperative to attract tourist dollars. 

United States

The scene in the United States offers little more cause for hope.  Much needed comprehensive immigration reform has most likely stalled in 2014.  Pundits and Washington insiders consider the topic too divisive and dangerous for Congress to touch in an election year.  Despite this pessimism, President Obama has predicted immigration reform for this year.   This sentiment has been echoed by Speaker John Boehner who will present principles for comprehensive reform to his caucus later this week.  It seems unlikely that the House and the Senate will agree given the acrimonious nature of the debate and the fragmentation of the Republican Party. 

In the meantime, the immigration system in the US is facing a potential collapse as nearly half of immigration judges will become eligible for retirement in 2014.  The immigration court system, a fiefdom cloistered away from the main judicial system, faces a backlog of over 350,000 cases.  Immigration courts received very little of the additional funding funneled at the immigration administration and immigration judges are notoriously overworked and understaffed.  Luckily because the immigration courts are part of the executive branch, the nomination of replacement judges would not depend on gridlocked Congress.