Mitt Romney’s overwhelming
loss among Hispanic and Asian voters may have been a critical juncture for
the Republican Party.
Demographic change in the US is nothing
new, but political adaptation to shifting realities occurs in fits and
starts. During the recent election the
national Republican message appealed primarily to non-Hispanic whites. However, according to the US census
non-Hispanic whites fell from 69.1% of the national population to 63.7% between
2000 and 2010. Meanwhile, Hispanic and
Asian populations rose from 12.5 to 16.3% and 3.6 to 4.8% respectively. Of course these gross demographic shifts don’t
indicate who will come out to vote, let alone who is eligible to vote. But the trend is clear. In the key swing states for the 2012 election,
minority populations are growing, especially in the south and west.
Strong anti-immigrant rhetoric from Republicans
has arguably driven Latinos away from the party. While George W.
Bush and John
McCain appear to have garnered around 31% of the Latino votes in 2004 and
2008, Mitt Romney appears to
have gained only 23% of the Latino vote. Romney’s poor showing comes despite the fact
that President Obama has overseen the largest deportation initiative in US
history. The fact remains that a rash of anti-immigrant
laws in Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana and Mississippi has been laid
at the Republican door step. The rejection
of the DREAM Act and various “English-only” initiatives has not helped
Republicans with Latinos.
A new republican
Super PAC reflects hand-wringing in the party that this strident nativist
pandering is costing Republicans on the national stage. The organization hopes to offer a
pro-immigrant position that Republicans can use and attempt to steer the party
dialogue away from demographically untenable positions. The jury is out as to whether this initiative
will gain substantial momentum and actually reshape the political discourse
surrounding immigration. Democrats
appear to have very little incentive to spend political capital on immigration
reform as long as Republicans continue to drive away minority and Latino voters. A fundamental change in the Republican Party
could change all that.
