Immigration Reform in the US after the 2012 Elections?

On the heels of a very interesting panel held at UC Davis discussing immigration reform in the United States after the 2012 elections, I thought I would share some musings.

Mitt Romney’s overwhelming loss among Hispanic and Asian voters may have been a critical juncture for the Republican Party.

Demographic change in the US is nothing new, but political adaptation to shifting realities occurs in fits and starts.  During the recent election the national Republican message appealed primarily to non-Hispanic whites.  However, according to the US census non-Hispanic whites fell from 69.1% of the national population to 63.7% between 2000 and 2010.  Meanwhile, Hispanic and Asian populations rose from 12.5 to 16.3% and 3.6 to 4.8% respectively.  Of course these gross demographic shifts don’t indicate who will come out to vote, let alone who is eligible to vote.  But the trend is clear.  In the key swing states for the 2012 election, minority populations are growing, especially in the south and west. 

Strong anti-immigrant rhetoric from Republicans has arguably driven Latinos away from the party.  While George W. Bush and John McCain appear to have garnered around 31% of the Latino votes in 2004 and 2008, Mitt Romney appears to have gained only 23% of the Latino vote.  Romney’s poor showing comes despite the fact that President Obama has overseen the largest deportation initiative in US history.    The fact remains that a rash of anti-immigrant laws in Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana and Mississippi has been laid at the Republican door step.  The rejection of the DREAM Act and various “English-only” initiatives has not helped Republicans with Latinos. 

A new republican Super PAC reflects hand-wringing in the party that this strident nativist pandering is costing Republicans on the national stage.  The organization hopes to offer a pro-immigrant position that Republicans can use and attempt to steer the party dialogue away from demographically untenable positions.  The jury is out as to whether this initiative will gain substantial momentum and actually reshape the political discourse surrounding immigration.  Democrats appear to have very little incentive to spend political capital on immigration reform as long as Republicans continue to drive away minority and Latino voters.  A fundamental change in the Republican Party could change all that.